“Come on Don! You don’t have a chance in the world...do you?”
Absolutely Yes! And here’s why:
The Theory: The Honeymoon for Sean Duffy has Faded
Voters have taken notice that the voting record of Sean Duffy isn’t matching up with what his campaign promises. In 2010, even with having an insurmountable money and endorsement advantage, 35% of the Republicans voted for a Conservative Constitutionalist over Sean Duffy. Similar results with the favored Democrat, losing 15% to a Conservative running on the ticket. In total, that potentially breaks down to a 65-50-85 Duffy-Raihala-Westlund split, making for a very interesting summer primary.
If the past is any indication of the future, a reasonable assumption has been made of picking up all Republicans that voted for Dan Mielke. Given the fact that they voted against the heavily backed Sean Duffy and that Dan Mielke ‘backed Mr. Raihala’ when asked in a debate if he would support Sean Duffy. In a best case scenario, an assumption is made of an equal party primary turnout and either a 8% pickup of Duffy supporters or 16% of Democrat supporters or any combination of both are needed for a win. In a worse case scenario, the unbalanced 2010 primary turnout is used and a combined 22% pickup from both Duffy and Democrat supporters are needed for a win. The way these scenarios could play out aren’t as far fetched as some will try to convince you elsewise. Given Sean Duffy’s less than stellar fiscally responsible voting record anything could happen in 2014.
I don’t necessarily have to out garner more votes head to head with Sean Duffy to win, I only need to unify and improve on the second place finishes of 2010 to achieve success.
Think back to the 2010 election cycle. It was a very full Federal and State election primary ballot in the Wisconsin 7th Congressional District. We had multiple candidates on both sides contending for a highly contested empty gubernatorial seat, we had many Republican candidates seeking to take on Russ Feingold and his Senate seat and we had multiple candidates in each major party for the first time as far back as 1966, maybe even further, vying for the empty Congressional seat long held by retiring Dave Obey.
The 2010 Primaries:
I’m fairly confident that few Republicans crossed over to vote for the Conservative running on the Democrat ticket. That humbling, yet rewarding, experience revealed that there are a number of Democrats willing to vote for their beliefs and what they truly want in a candidate while resisting relentless national influences pushing them to the party backed candidate. Though 15% is not significant in itself, it is sufficient given the absent media coverage. The week preceding the election my campaign site received the majority of exposure, well over 10,000 hits, likely due to election preview stories. Tough results, but many hard lessons were learned.
Sean Duffy also had a race to win or maybe more correctly, Dan Mielke, the Republican candidate from 2008’s Congressional election, now had a big money primary challenger. In both elections that Dan Mielke ran, he never received the backing of the national Republican money machine that Sean Duffy did, nor any type of RNC endorsement. Nonetheless, even with an insurmountable money disadvantage, Dan Mielke did muster 35% of the vote in the 2010 Republican primary.
The Historical Change:
If you look at the years 2008 & 2012 presidential election cycles we have a 60,000 vote pick up by Sean Duffy over Dave Obey, significantly more than the most generous estimates through redistricting. This is exemplified by the nearly 100,000 votes Julie Lassa didn’t receive in comparison to Dave Obey in 2008. Don, what does this all mean (in a Mark Levin tone)? It means the overwhelming dominance once held by Dave Obey is now being held by Sean Duffy - a near mirror image flip flop. Through my own thorough analysis, the only basis for this is Barack Obama’s presidency. More appropriately, many of our fellow neighbors and friends that were voting Democrat have seen the destructive writing on the wall and they are using their votes to show their displeasure with the President and the party that is backing him. Many of those 60,000 new voters, that Sean Duffy has had the benefit of claiming, aren’t necessarily voting for him, but in a sense for the lesser of two evils. They haven’t been converted to Republicans or Independents - they’re still Democrats , but more of a superlative Democrat hybrid that no longer are in support of where all this ‘Hope and Change’ is taking this country.